What is 2008 going to be like for the cinemas? It is still too early to give an answer because, although the end of the year is close, we already know that these last few weeks, and in particular the Christmas period, are of crucial importance for cinema-going. Frequently, cinema-going in November and December has proved to be critical for determining the year’s results.
The appointment with the European Film Awards nonetheless encourages us to hazard a few predictions based on the results of the first nine or ten months of the year and on the judgement of authoritative representatives of the European cinema community.

After a 2007 characterized by the dip in audiences but also by the positive affirmation of European films, what can be expected of 2008? Will cinema-going have suffered from the consequences of the negative trend in the economy and on the financial markets or, as has already happened in the past, will it manage to swim against the current, catching hold of the desire to escape from the difficulties of daily life?

From the five main European markets, those that are “worth” at least a hundred million spectators each (or even approaching the coveted two-hundred million threshold), various different signals are coming.

As regards Spain, the wave of drops in admissions, which began in 2005, does not seem to be coming to an end in 2008. “After one of the best summer seasons of the last years, we estimate that overall admissions will be about 10 million less than in 2007. In fact 2008 suffers from the lack of very successful domestic productions such as the horror movies El Orfanato and Rec, two blockbusters both at home and abroad”, says Borja de Benito Porto, Head of Communications and Marketing at Federación de Cines de España.

Italy arrives at the threshold of the Christmas period with a slight dip: this means that the results of the two-month November-December period will be decisive, in particular the Christmas holidays, a traditional time for the release of the “made in Italy” comedy, which draws mass audiences. “Tickets sold in the first ten months of 2008 show a 5% decrease compared to the previous year. If we consider that 2007 was an exceptional year, characterized by a 11% increase, we can be satisfied with the expected results for 2008” says Paolo Protti, President of ANEC. “The real challenge will be in 2009, when we’ll see how cinema will react to the financial crisis”. In the meantime it can already be confirmed that, after a 2007 market share amounting to 33%, in 2008, too, Italian productions have not only won an important share of the home market (at the end of October one point more compared to the previous 12 months), but also international visibility, thanks to the success of Gomorra (1.7 million tickets sold at home) and Il Divo (783,000 tickets).
Italian statistics see European productions, including the French films La Graine et le Mulet and Persepolis, the German Der Baader Meinhof Komplex and the Belgian Le Silence de Lorna, in a strong position, even though it must be remembered that in several cases these are co-productions with the United States, like Cassandra’s Dreams e Vicky Cristina Barcelona.

“Stable or growing slightly”: this is the forecast for the German market by Detlef Rossmann, President of the organization representing the arthouse sector in Germany, who emphasizes the great success of European titles such as Planet Earth (a German – British coproduction totalling 3.7 million spectators in Germany) and Astérix aux Jeux Olympiques, standing at 1.6 million, coming from France, like Bienvenue chez les Ch’tis. The market share of domestic productions – led by Keinohrhasen (4.7 million tickets sold by the end of June) is very high too.

“After recording an exceptional number of admissions in the summer – the highest for forty years – the United Kingdom is confident of repeating, if not improving on, the excellent 2007 results, i.e. over 160 million spectators,” says Philip Clapp, Chief Executive Officer of CEA, whose calculations are supported by attentive analysts of the British market, who have taken into consideration not only the trend of the first ten months of the year but also the potential of coming releases over the next few weeks.
In 2008 the commitment of the UK Film Council, supporting the circulation of foreign-language films, continues, thanks also to the fast track by which distributors can obtain economic support for digital distribution. Consequently, the titles that have appeared in British cinemas also include specialty films such as Caramel, 4 Luni 3 Saptamini si 2 Zile, Caos calmo, Mio fratello è figlio unico, Anche libero va bene. All-round optimism for France, which closes October with almost 153 million spectators, or 3.6% more than the same month in 2007. Good news, too, in terms of domestic productions, which have secured as much as 47% of the market up to now, three points more than those made in the USA.

Amongst the titles that cross national borders, apart from those already mentioned, are Babylon A.D., Taken and the 2008 Golden Palm Entre les Murs, sold on fifty or so markets and already released in Belgium and Italy.

Lastly, amongst the most interesting expressions of European filmmaking, capable of establishing themselves on the international scenario, are two productions coming from small but dynamic countries: the bold Danish production Flammen & Citronen, dealing with the German occupation, bold in terms of both the resources used and the topic it deals with, and the Belgian Fly me to the Moon, which has succeeded in its task of distinguishing itself on the innovative scenario of 3D productions that are candidates for digital screening.

To sum up, Europe is giving us quality content and forward-looking technology.